Take-Two Bookings Fall 18% as NBA 2K27 Misses Forecast Ten Days Before GTA VI

The weak quarter matters less to investors than what comes next. Grand Theft Auto VI, the most anticipated release in the games industry, goes on sale on November 19 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S. Take-Two reiterated its forecast for net bookings of $8.0 billion to $8.2 billion in the fiscal year to March 31, 2027, a figure that depends heavily on that single launch.

For the three months to September 30, GAAP net revenue was $1.50 billion, down from $1.77 billion a year earlier, the company said in its earnings release. The net loss narrowed to $54.0 million, or $0.29 a share, from $133.9 million, or $0.73 a share. Net bookings from recurrent consumer spending, the in-game purchases and add-ons that make up most of the publisher's income, fell 9% and accounted for 81% of the total.

NBA 2K27, released on September 4, posted the second-highest net bookings in the basketball series' history, chairman and chief executive Strauss Zelnick said on the earnings call, but "it was below our forecast for the period." He did not tie the shortfall to Grand Theft Auto VI, saying instead that "the launch window was unusually busy, with numerous entertainment experiences competing for players' attention." Bloomberg's coverage of the results suggested the publisher may have hurt sales of one of its games with another of its own.

The December Bet

Take-Two expects net bookings of $3.35 billion to $3.50 billion in the December quarter, roughly double the $1.76 billion it reported a year earlier, with GAAP net revenue of $3.27 billion to $3.42 billion and earnings of $1.30 to $1.44 a share. Chief financial officer Lainie Goldstein said recurrent consumer spending should rise by about 12% in the quarter, "driven by sales of Grand Theft Auto VI: Ultimate Edition", and that most of the game's marketing spending will fall in the same period.

For the full year the company forecast GAAP net revenue of $7.98 billion to $8.18 billion, diluted earnings of $0.57 to $0.75 a share, operating cash flow above $1.0 billion and capital spending of about $290 million.

Zelnick said in the release that the launch was "ten days away" and that pre-orders were "continuing to reach unprecedented levels." On the call he said pre-orders were "tracking far in excess of our initial expectations", but explained that the company had not raised its guidance because "we tend to avoid claiming success before it occurs." He declined to give an outlook for fiscal 2028, while repeating that the company expects to "set a new baseline for performance going forward."

AI and the Piracy Question

Analysts used the call to ask how artificial intelligence affects the business. Andrew Marok of Raymond James asked about AI-assisted reverse engineering and decompilation of games. Zelnick said the threat "is going to become more of a challenge" and that the company is "utterly focused on enhancing our technical defenses and enhancing our legal activities appropriately", adding that he thought it "will be manageable."

Asked about development tools, he said recent technological advances "have made it easier to create assets", but argued that making a big hit had not become easier. "Hit creation remains the purview of human beings," he said. The company did not say whether it uses generative AI in its own studios.

Zelnick confirmed only the two console versions of Grand Theft Auto VI for launch and said any news on new editions or platforms would come from Take-Two's labels. The figures released on Monday are preliminary; final numbers will appear in the company's quarterly 10-Q filing.