Nvidia Results and Anthropic's Nasdaq Debut Set Up a Two-Day Test for the AI Trade

The two events land at an awkward moment. Nvidia, the chipmaker whose sales have tracked the AI build-out more closely than any other company's, has lost its founder and chief executive, and its shares have fallen hard. Anthropic's listing, meanwhile, would be the largest test yet of whether public investors will pay private-market prices for a model developer that spends heavily on compute.

"The Nvidia story is now idiosyncratic," Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide Investment Management Group, told CNBC, arguing that the market has absorbed painful moves in tech. Patrick Ryan of Madison Investments told Reuters that a weak Anthropic debut would be "another cautionary sign" that investors are growing more stressed about AI.

Nvidia Without Huang

Nvidia's market value has dropped from about $5.8 trillion in early October to roughly $4 trillion, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The stock fell about 13% this week and more than 30% over six weeks, CNBC reported, closing the week near $160. The slide followed Jensen Huang's departure as chief executive amid reports of extramarital affairs, one of them with a woman described as a suspected Chinese spy.

Colette Kress, the former chief financial officer now serving as interim chief executive, will present results for the fiscal third quarter after the market closes on Tuesday. Analysts expect earnings to grow 90% on revenue of $109 billion, according to LSEG. Alex Morris, chief executive of F/m Investments, told Reuters that any disappointment could be punished with a penalty "leveraged down" by the market. Not everyone is bearish: Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives & Co has a 12-month price target of $225 on the stock even without Huang, CNBC reported.

The board has said it has not chosen a search firm or formally engaged candidates for the permanent role.

Anthropic's Pricing

Anthropic is expected to price its shares on Wednesday in a range of $70 to $78 and to begin trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker "ANT", according to CNBC. Reuters reported that the company and some existing investors aim to raise up to $64.4 billion by selling 825 million shares.

Estimates of the valuation differ. Reuters put it at up to $1.4 trillion, while CNBC described an estimated valuation of about $1.2 trillion, down from $2 trillion discussed earlier in the autumn. Benjamin Black, investment chief at Powerlaw Corp., told CNBC that the company is "not even really that expensive", putting the price at roughly 12 times an expected annualised revenue run rate of $100 billion by the end of 2026.

The obvious comparison is SpaceX, which raised $75 billion in its June listing at a valuation near $1.75 trillion. Its shares dropped to about $105 in August against a $135 offer price before recovering to around $140, Reuters noted.

The backdrop is mixed. The major US indexes posted their best week since August, and the S&P 500 is up nearly 11% this year. But October consumer prices rose faster than expected, markets are pricing in further rate increases, and Democratic gains in this month's midterm elections have raised the prospect of tighter rules on data centre expansion. Sameer Samana of Wells Fargo Investment Institute told Reuters the market is wearing "rose-colored glasses" on risks including inflation, the war in Iran and AI uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve releases minutes of its latest meeting on Wednesday afternoon, hours before Anthropic is due to set its price.