Maersk Raises 2026 Profit Guidance for a Third Time as Congestion Keeps Freight Rates High

The Danish group now expects underlying EBITDA of $14 billion to $14.5 billion, up from a previous range of $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion, and underlying EBIT of $8 billion to $8.5 billion, against $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion before. It raised its free cash flow forecast to more than $3 billion, from more than zero, and said its $1 billion share buyback continues. The guidance assumes global container volumes grow by about 4% this year.

The numbers matter beyond shipping. Maersk moves a large share of the world's containerised trade, and its results are one of the clearest reads on what supply-chain disruption is costing importers. Chief executive Vincent Clerc linked part of the demand to investment in electrification, energy and artificial intelligence infrastructure, according to the shipping publication Splash, which paraphrased his remarks.

Third-quarter revenue rose 27% from a year earlier to $18.1 billion. EBITDA climbed to $4.7 billion from $2.7 billion, and EBIT reached $3.3 billion, up from $1.3 billion, for a margin of 18.1%. Net profit was about $3 billion, compared with $1.1 billion a year earlier.

Investors were not impressed. Maersk's shares fell about 11% after European markets opened. Third-quarter EBITDA came in below analyst forecasts, although estimates of the consensus differed: Investing.com put it at $5.04 billion, while Swedish bank SEB, quoted by Splash, cited a consensus of $5.17 billion and its own forecast of $5.56 billion. SEB said the upgrade, "though substantial, was below some buy-side expectations".

Rates Up, Volumes Down

The ocean business did most of the work. Its EBIT rose to $2.6 billion from $567 million a year earlier, as higher freight rates outweighed slightly lower volumes, and vessel utilisation was 96%. Average spot rates on the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index were 46% higher than in the previous quarter, the company said.

Maersk said typhoons across Asia had clogged ports, pushing average global waiting times to 16.6 hours, the highest since January 2023. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and wider network congestion also raised costs for bunker fuel and container handling and hurt schedule reliability, it said.

Rivals did better on some measures. Maersk's ocean volumes fell 0.8% in the quarter while Ocean Network Express and COSCO each grew volumes by 4.5%, according to Splash. Shipping analyst Lars Jensen pointed to Maersk's "relatively weaker showing against peers", with an ocean operating margin of 20.6% against 21.6% at ONE and 28.8% at COSCO's container unit, which includes OOCL.

Logistics and Services revenue grew 13% and its EBIT margin edged up to 5.8% from 5.5%. The terminals business posted record revenue, with volumes up 2.6%, including 14% growth in Africa and 6.7% in Europe, and an EBIT margin of 32.5%. Maersk also said it had ordered 26 dual-fuel container ships of 18,600 TEU each for delivery in 2029 and 2030.

The Suez Question

The higher earnings rest on disruption that may not last. Analysts flagged that freight rates could ease as carriers return to the Suez Canal. Sea-Intelligence estimates that about 60% of deployed Asia-Europe capacity is operating or scheduled to operate via Suez, with further normalisation expected in the first quarter of 2027, according to Splash. Drewry's World Container Index has already fallen 3% to $4,429 per 40-foot container, and Drewry expects more pressure on transpacific rates, with US imports forecast to fall 11% month on month in November.