Dubai Food Inflation Hits 9.1% in October, Fastest Since at Least 2010

Headline consumer inflation in the emirate rose to 5.5% in October from 5.0% in September, returning to August's rate. Prices rose 1.1% on the month after a 0.05% decline in September.

The food figure matters for Dubai households and employers because it is proving harder to bring down than fuel. Monthly food price growth eased only slightly, to 1.0% in October from 1.1% in September, which leaves the annual rate on an upward track even as petrol prices start to come off their peak.

Transport drove most of the October jump. Transport prices were 19.3% higher than a year earlier, up from 14.7% in September, and rose 6.3% in October alone after a petrol price increase. Fuel and lubricants were 53.2% more expensive than a year before, with Super 98 reaching AED 4.40 a litre, 58.8% above its level a year earlier.

Transport added 2.3 percentage points to headline inflation, the largest contribution of any category, according to Emirates NBD research. Housing, which rose 5.8% after 6.2% in September and 7.4% in January, added 2.2 points. Emirates NBD said it was the first time since October 2022 that housing was not the biggest contributor to Dubai inflation.

Hotel and other accommodation prices rose 66.1% from September, a rebound Emirates NBD linked to seasonal demand and some recovery in pricing power after steep declines earlier in 2026. They were still 11.7% lower than a year earlier.

Businesses are passing on costs. Dubai firms raised their selling prices at the fastest pace on record in October, according to the S&P Global purchasing managers' survey, citing higher prices for raw materials, fuel, energy, freight and rent.

Some relief is coming from the pump. The UAE's November fuel price for Super 98 fell to AED 4.15 a litre, though that is still 58.2% above a year earlier, so Emirates NBD expects transport inflation to remain elevated. The bank's economists expect headline inflation to hold broadly steady through the end of the year and to ease in 2027 as oil prices moderate. The December fuel price announcement, due at the end of November, is the next marker for whether that forecast holds.