UAE Set to Lead the World in Solar Power Per Person by 2031, IEA Forecasts

The Paris-based agency estimates UAE solar output per capita at more than 4,000 kilowatt-hours by the end of its forecast period. Australia ranks second, Oman third, Bulgaria fourth and Qatar fifth, putting three Gulf states in the global top five. Greece, Austria, Spain, China and Chile complete the top 10, and every country on the list is expected to produce at least 2,000kWh per person, against a global average of about 800kWh.

The ranking matters for the Gulf beyond climate targets. Cheap, abundant solar power is one of the region's main selling points as it competes for energy-hungry industries, including the AI data centres that the UAE and its neighbours are courting.

"At the global level, average per-capita solar output is more than twice as high by 2031, but the leading countries still generate multiple times that average," the IEA's analysts wrote, adding that this points to "persistent disparities in both deployment rates and access to solar generation."

The agency expects the Middle East to triple its renewable capacity through 2031, a pace it also forecasts for Africa and Southeast Asia. It projects a fivefold expansion in Saudi Arabia, followed by the UAE, which it said marks "a structural step-change in the region's energy market." Across emerging and developing economies, the IEA said its forecast is almost 20% higher than in last year's report, citing new ambitions, energy security benefits, supportive policies and cheaper wind and solar.

Globally, the IEA puts renewable capacity growth at nearly 4,800GW over 2026 to 2031, which it said is 57% more than in the previous six years, with China remaining the largest market and India moving into second place. Solar will make up about three quarters of the world's renewable capacity, the agency said.

At the Middle East Energy summit in September, Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the UAE had raised its clean energy target, which counts both renewables and nuclear, to 35% by 2030 to 2031, and that meeting it will take new projects, more competition and a larger role for private power producers.