Russia and US Move to Block Binding Global Rules on Autonomous Weapons

The decision falls to the seventh review conference of the Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, which 128 countries are due to attend from 16 to 20 November. A diplomatic retreat beginning on Friday is expected to show how wide the opposition runs. Russia, the US and Israel, among others, are pushing back against the conference setting a timetable for a binding instrument, according to the report.

For governments, defence contractors and AI developers, the outcome will determine whether weapons that can pick and strike targets on their own remain governed only by national policy and existing humanitarian law, or by a dedicated international protocol. A UN expert group has defined such systems as weapons "capable of identifying, selecting and engaging a target without the need to refer the issue to a human being".

The proposal on the table comes from a coalition of 50 states, including Ireland, Italy, Brazil, Mexico, France and Germany, which on 22 October called for a strict negotiating mandate. Their plan would set up a time-limited expert group to negotiate the rules over three sessions in Geneva in 2027, totalling 25 days, and present a draft protocol to the convention's annual meeting later that year. The International Committee of the Red Cross has said more than 70 states support beginning negotiations, and 163 states told the UN's disarmament and international security committee that they were ready to start.

France has backed a mandate that "bans completely autonomous weapons systems and regulates systems with autonomous functions". The UK did not sign the Irish-led statement and has argued that existing international humanitarian law is a sufficient basis for regulating these weapons. The US largely prefers to leave controls to individual states acting within that law, and the Pentagon has set up its own working group on autonomous weapons.

The convention works by consensus, which gives a small number of opponents the power to stall talks. At the previous review conference in 2021, Russia, the US, India and Israel were among the states that prevented a majority from opening negotiations, and a vaguer mandate was adopted instead, according to Human Rights Watch.

Anna Hehir, head of military AI governance at the Future of Life Institute, said states "have never been closer to launching a global agreement on AI weapons", having agreed by consensus on elements of a draft treaty text. She warned that proposals for further years of talks on non-binding measures were "smokescreens to keep autonomous weapons systems unregulated and states unaccountable for their use."

The ICRC said on Thursday that "the time has come to move from discussion to negotiation" and that the world "cannot afford further delays". Pope Leo XIV also urged the states meeting in Geneva to take concrete steps towards banning lethal autonomous weapons, saying decisions affecting human life must stay under effective human oversight.

Pressure has built as AI-guided systems reach active conflicts. In July, Ukraine reported for the first time that Russia had used an AI-guided drone, which hit a propane tank at a fuel station in Zaporizhzhia. Human Rights Watch and the Stop Killer Robots campaign argue that AI-assisted weapons behave unpredictably and raise the risk of fatal errors.

If consensus fails in Geneva, campaigners have floated an alternative: Stop Killer Robots has proposed convening a separate negotiating conference if 65 or more of the convention's parties back one, a route that would leave the major military powers outside the room.