Morningstar Values Anthropic at $1.7 Trillion, Above Reported IPO Price Talk

The estimate, set out in research by analyst Malik Ahmed Khan and published on Monday, gives Anthropic a narrow economic moat rating, meaning Morningstar expects it to hold a lasting competitive advantage, but a lower-conviction one than a wide moat. Morningstar also assigned a Very High uncertainty rating, its signal that the range of possible outcomes is unusually broad. Its scenarios show how wide that range is. The bull case, built on Morningstar's most optimistic assumptions, values the company at slightly more than $3 trillion. The bear case is $500 billion, which Morningstar says implies about 6 times sales.

The two Morningstar pieces published on Monday describe the $1.7 trillion base case differently. One says it implies about 13 times Anthropic's 2027 sales and the other about 15 times. The base case assumes revenue grows at a compound annual rate of 47% over the next five years.

The valuation matters now because Anthropic is preparing what would be one of the largest share sales ever. Analysts' public valuation work will be one of the few independent checks investors have on its price.

Morningstar's argument rests on cost. Khan wrote that Anthropic has a structural cost advantage over other AI model developers and over companies that run open-weight models on their own infrastructure. He said its ability to sign multiyear contracts and buy computing capacity by the gigawatt may give it better unit economics than smaller rivals.

The main risk he identifies is Anthropic's dependence on the large cloud providers. They supply its computing power but also compete with it, and Morningstar says they have every interest in turning the intelligence layer into a commodity, which would erode the margins that model developers can earn.

The research arrives as the price talk for the listing has fallen. Bloomberg reported on November 6, citing people familiar with the matter, that potential buyers were discussing a valuation of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some considering as low as $1.1 trillion. According to that report, estimates had been about $2 trillion in early October, then fell to $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion after a company briefing later that month. Bloomberg said formal marketing of the offering was expected to begin this week, that no final decisions had been made, and that a delay remained an option.

Other outside estimates vary widely. New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran, who specialises in valuation, has put Anthropic's value at under $1.5 trillion. He has also criticised the company's proposed share structure.

At $1.7 trillion, Morningstar's base case is about 30% above the top of the $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion range that buyers were reportedly discussing. Investors will see how far apart the two are once Anthropic sets a price range and starts marketing the offering.