Moody's Forecasts 8.2% UAE Growth in 2027, Twice the Average for Big Emerging Markets

The forecasts are in Moody's Emerging Markets Outlook 2027, dated November 12, according to an account of the report in the Dubai daily Al Bayan. The agency lists the UAE's sovereign rating at Aa2 with a stable outlook and expects growth to slow to 4.4% in 2028.

For the wider group, Moody's projects average growth of 4% in 2027, up from 3.7% in 2026, and 3.9% in 2028. Its stable outlook for emerging markets reflects the ability of many of them to manage debt and benefit from continuing investment cycles despite higher financing and energy costs and geopolitical developments, the agency said.

The report points to expanding investment in digital infrastructure in the UAE as the global build-out of data centres and AI-related technology reaches new markets. Moody's said spending on digital infrastructure, power grids and new technologies is supporting global demand for some commodities, while the realignment of supply chains is opening investment opportunities for some emerging economies.

The 2027 figure is well below the rebound Moody's projected in June, when it affirmed the UAE's Aa2 rating during the Iran war. At that time the agency expected real GDP to contract by about 7% in 2026, with hydrocarbon output down 23% and non-hydrocarbon activity down 4%, before growth of 13% in 2027 as trade flows resumed. Al Bayan's account does not say whether Moody's has changed its 2026 estimate or explain the gap between the two 2027 figures.

Other forecasters also expect a strong recovery next year. The UAE Central Bank has projected GDP growth of 10.4% in 2027.

In June, Moody's said an escalation that damaged strategic infrastructure could put pressure on the UAE's rating, while better transparency, lower geopolitical risk and greater resilience to the energy transition could support an upgrade.