LNG Tanker Exits From Hormuz Hit Wartime High in October as UAE Flows Recover

The recovery matters for the Gulf's two LNG exporters, Qatar and the UAE, whose cargoes must pass through the strait. It also matters for buyers in Asia who have been short of supply since the fighting began. Eric Yep, an analyst at S&P Global Energy, said UAE transits were returning to pre-war levels, while Qatar's transits had passed 30% of their pre-war level.

Data from Kpler, a separate tracking firm, showed 42 LNG cargoes loaded in October, up from 27 in September. Loadings at Qatar's Ras Laffan complex reached 35 cargoes in October, totalling more than 2.7 million tonnes and the highest since the war started. That is still well below Qatar's exports of nearly 6.2 million tonnes in February.

Some Qatari supply is taking indirect routes. According to Kpler, two vessels that loaded at Ras Laffan and left the strait transferred their cargoes to other ships off Sohar in Oman. One of the onward cargoes is now heading to South Korea, and another was delivered to Pakistan.

The tanker figures come as Gulf energy companies report how the disruption has hit them. This week Japan's Inpex said its offshore Abu Dhabi operations had struggled while onshore output ran normally, and Iraq said it had a US understanding to move oil through a shipping lane near Oman.

The October numbers show traffic improving but still uneven. Qatar is shipping less than a third of what it did before the war, and the S&P and Kpler counts measure different things: S&P counts laden tankers leaving the strait, while Kpler counts cargoes loaded. Whether exports keep rising depends on how talks between Washington and Tehran go. President Donald Trump said this week that renewed US strikes on Iran were unlikely if negotiations progress.