China's Car Exports Rise 68% in October as Home Sales Fall for a 12th Month

The figures vary slightly depending on the measure used. Reuters put exports at 932,000 units, up 68.2%, and domestic sales at 1.65 million, down 27.3%. The CPCA's monthly breakdown, as published by ChinaEVHome, counts exports including knocked-down kits at 928,000 units, up 68.5%, and retail sales at 1.643 million, down 27.1% year on year but up 1.5% from September. In September, exports had risen 73.2% and domestic sales had fallen 28.1%.

The gap between the two markets matters beyond China. With demand weak at home, Chinese manufacturers are leaning harder on foreign markets, adding competition for established brands in regions such as the Gulf. CPCA secretary-general Cui Dongshu said the Middle East is expected to be "a key driver of export growth next year", though he added that the outlook "remains uncertain" and that overall export growth is likely to slow. According to Reuters, he urged carmakers to speed up localisation abroad, expand overseas manufacturing, keep core technologies in China and promote Chinese standards globally.

Electrified vehicles now dominate what China sends abroad. New energy vehicle (NEV) exports reached 582,000 units, up 144.7% from a year earlier, and made up 62.8% of passenger car exports, 20 percentage points more than a year ago, according to the CPCA figures. Battery electric models accounted for 61.7% of NEV exports and plug-in hybrids for 33.7%, with range extenders making up the rest. Small A00 and A0 class cars made up 56.4% of battery electric exports. Exports were equal to 35% of manufacturers' total sales in the month.

BYD was the largest NEV exporter in October with 165,100 units, followed by Chery with 83,800, Geely with 80,100, Tesla China with 59,000 and SAIC Passenger Vehicle with 42,000.

At home, NEVs took a record 67.5% of retail sales, up 10.5 percentage points from a year earlier, even though NEV retail volumes fell 13.7% to 1.109 million. Sales of combustion-engine cars dropped 45% to 530,000. Over the first ten months of the year, retail passenger car sales totalled 14.978 million, down 22.3%. The CPCA said the traditional "Silver October" sales season fell short of expectations.

The slump has not hit every brand equally. Leapmotor, Xpeng and Xiaomi each posted record monthly sales in October, while deliveries fell at Huawei's Harmony Intelligent Mobility Alliance, Li Auto and Nio, Reuters reported. BYD's global sales growth slowed in October and its third-quarter profit growth missed estimates as price competition in China spilled into overseas markets; the company is moving upmarket with a global debut for a Yangwang luxury sedan in Dubai.

Tesla's China business shows the shift sharply. The Shanghai plant exported 59,012 vehicles in October, up 66.3% from a year earlier, while domestic retail sales fell 66.1% to an estimated 8,817, the lowest since July 2022, according to figures compiled by CnEVPost. Exports accounted for a record 87% of Tesla China's wholesale volume, and its share of the Chinese NEV retail market fell to 0.80% from 2.03% a year earlier.

Carmakers have been running down stock. Passenger car production was 2.654 million units in October, down 10.1% from a year earlier, and inventory has fallen by about 600,000 units since January, according to the CPCA data.

The association expects the domestic market to eke out modest growth in 2027 after what it called a deeper-than-expected slump this year. Its forecast that export growth will slow suggests overseas sales may not keep making up for weak demand at home.