Anthropic's IPO Could Draw a Record $250 Million in Retail Buying, Vanda Estimates

SpaceX drew $118 million of net retail buying when it listed in June, the current high for an IPO. Vanda said only six stocks have topped $250 million in single-day retail buying since 2024, Reuters reported, so a debut on that scale would put Anthropic among the most heavily bought stocks of the period on day one. The forecast matters for how the shares trade in their first sessions: a separate analysis this week estimated that index funds could take about $19 billion of the stock within 15 days of listing, and heavy retail demand on top of that would add to early buying pressure.

"Judging by pre-IPO perp trading, Anthropic is shaping up to be a record retail IPO," Viraj Patel, a global macro strategist at Vanda, said.

The estimate rests on two inputs: retail activity on the listing days of past IPOs, and trading volumes in Anthropic pre-IPO perpetual futures on Hyperliquid. These contracts let traders bet on a private company's valuation without owning its shares. They have no direct link to the stock and are priced off the company's latest disclosed pre-IPO valuation, so they are a speculative gauge of enthusiasm rather than a measure of orders.

Anthropic plans to list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker ANT, and its shares are expected to begin trading on November 19. The company is targeting a fully diluted valuation of up to about $1.4 trillion. Regulatory filings show Anthropic and its co-founders aim to raise up to $90.4 billion through the IPO and a separate private placement, Invezz reported, which would exceed the $75 billion SpaceX raised and could make it the largest listing on record. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the offering had drawn orders worth several times the shares available.

Individual investors will also have a direct route into the offering. Anthropic's amended prospectus, filed on November 10, sets aside up to 20% of the 825 million shares on offer for retail buyers, according to reports on the filing, distributed through brokerages including Schwab, Fidelity, Robinhood, SoFi and E*Trade. Brokers can limit or decline allocations to their customers.

The debut comes after a turbulent week for AI stocks. Nvidia, which plans to invest $10 billion in Anthropic immediately after the IPO according to CNBC, lost its chief executive on Thursday. Retail investors bought a net $111 million of Nvidia stock in the first 30 minutes of trading that day, Vanda said.

Anthropic has told prospective investors that it reached an annualised revenue run rate of about $81 billion by October 31, and that it faces nearly $900 billion in multi-year computing and infrastructure commitments.