UAE's Gargash Warns of Prolonged Uncertainty, Says US-Iran Settlement Looks Difficult

Gargash was addressing the Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, a geopolitical conference held in the capital. He said the consequences of the war "may persist for a long time", Reuters reported.

His remarks matter for companies and investors exposed to the Gulf. Many have been hoping a US-Iran deal would soon end the disruption to shipping, flights and energy supplies. Gargash, one of the UAE's most senior foreign policy voices, did not offer that prospect. He described a region that will have to manage instability for some time rather than wait for it to end.

His answer was a mix of defence spending and diplomacy. He said the UAE needs to invest in its defensive capabilities and credible deterrence, and to build stronger international security partnerships. He also said the country will need sustained engagement with Iran and with other regional and international partners. Some of that engagement in the near term might be "transactional by necessity", he said, without explaining what that would involve.

Gargash repeated that the UAE had opposed the US war with Iran from the outset. He thanked France, Israel, Greece, Egypt and India for their support and solidarity, and said some countries had helped defend the UAE against Iranian attacks earlier this year.

His tone was more measured than on November 1 in Manama. There, he said the UAE was "braced for the worst" amid fears that the United States would strike Iran and that Tehran would retaliate against Gulf states.

Washington's own assessment is similarly cautious. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that he did not believe a diplomatic breakthrough was imminent. President Donald Trump has said new strikes on Iran are "highly unlikely", but that his decision depends on whether Tehran signs what he called "a very strong agreement". Trump is due to host Qatar's prime minister for talks; Doha is a main channel between Washington and Tehran.

Oil markets have been pricing in a better outcome than Gargash described. Brent crude fell sharply last week on hopes that a deal would reopen Gulf shipping lanes, and continued to slide on Monday. His remarks suggest Gulf governments are preparing for the opposite: a long stretch in which they defend themselves, hedge their partnerships and deal with Tehran case by case.

The Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate brings together officials and analysts from the region and beyond. Gargash's speech gave no timetable for talks, and the next public signal is likely to come from Trump's meeting with the Qatari prime minister.