Trump Threatens to Double Tariffs on Mexico Unless It Stops Migrant Caravans

"MEXICO MUST STOP THEM, NOW, and if they do not do so, the Tariffs on Mexico will be IMMEDIATELY DOUBLED," Trump wrote on Truth Social. He did not say which tariffs would rise or give Mexico a deadline. In a second post, he said the "INVASION of our Country is taking place again", tied it to the Republicans' losses in last week's midterm elections and wrote: "There will be no leniency!" In those elections Democrats won both chambers of Congress, along with the Texas governorship for the first time in more than three decades, AFP reported.

The threat matters to companies because so much North American trade and manufacturing runs through Mexico. Two-way trade between the two countries was $96.34 billion in September alone, according to Yahoo Finance, and $38.9 billion of it passed through Laredo, Texas.

What Could Be Doubled

It is not clear which duties Trump means. Mexican-made cars currently face a 25% tariff and Mexican steel and aluminium 50%, while goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) enter duty-free, Yahoo Finance reported. It is also unclear whether a doubling would reach USMCA goods. Citing Reuters, Yahoo Finance said Trump decided in July not to extend the USMCA framework.

How he would raise the rates is also an open question. On February 20 the Supreme Court ruled 6-3 in Learning Resources v. Trump that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not allow the president to impose tariffs. The ruling struck down the duties he had placed on Mexico, Canada and China under that law, which he had tied to drug trafficking. Sector tariffs imposed under Section 232 of US trade law, which cover cars and steel, were not affected, according to law firm analyses of the decision. Trump's posts did not say what authority he would use.

Reports Differ on the Caravans

Estimates of how many migrants are travelling vary. Reuters put one caravan at about 1,500 people, most of them from Central America, and Spanish news agency EFE said the group set out with about 2,000. AFP described two groups, one of about 1,000 people and another of about 100. It said Mexican security forces detained dozens from the smaller group on Tuesday after it crossed a river from Guatemala, while the larger group had crossed two days earlier without resistance. Caravan members told AFP they hoped the Republicans' midterm defeat would lead Washington to loosen border restrictions.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum disputed Trump's account. She said Mexico has kept migrant caravans from reaching the US border since he took office in January 2025. She acknowledged that two caravans are moving through southern Mexico and said authorities are managing them with information and humanitarian aid.

Illegal border crossings have fallen sharply since Trump returned to office, and caravans have been rare compared with his first term and the Biden years, AFP noted. Mexico has stopped several groups of Central American migrants since September. Trump's posts did not say what Mexico would have to do to avoid the increase, which tariff lines it would cover, or under what law it would be imposed.