EIA Lifts US Power Demand Forecast, Sees Records in 2026 and 2027

The EIA expects demand to rise from a record 4,216 billion kilowatt-hours in 2025 to 4,306 billion kWh this year and 4,370 billion kWh in 2027, according to a Reuters report on the outlook. If the 2026 forecast holds, it will be the third record year in a row. In October the agency had forecast 4,288 billion kWh for 2026 and 4,356 billion kWh for 2027, from a 2025 base of 4,195 billion kWh. Most of the upward change comes from that higher starting point.

The forecast matters for anyone planning or paying for AI infrastructure. Data centres serving AI workloads, together with the shift of heating and transport from fossil fuels to electricity, are the main sources of new demand, Reuters said. That demand is arriving faster than the grid can comfortably absorb it, and the outlook shows who is using the extra power and which fuels are supplying it.

The sector numbers show the change most clearly. The EIA forecasts 1,557 billion kWh of commercial electricity sales in 2026, against 1,546 billion kWh for residential customers. That puts the commercial sector, where data centres are counted, ahead of households. Both would be records: commercial sales were 1,503 billion kWh and residential sales 1,519 billion kWh in 2025. Industrial sales are forecast at 1,061 billion kWh, just short of the 1,064 billion kWh record set in 2000.

In its electricity chapter, the EIA said commercial and industrial demand would keep rising in 2027, while residential demand would fall because it expects a milder summer. The agency does not report data centre consumption as a separate line.

Natural gas will carry much of the load. The EIA expects gas to generate about 40% of US electricity in 2026, unchanged from 2025, before easing to 39% in 2027. Gas burned in power plants is forecast to average 37.4 billion cubic feet a day this year, above the previous high of 36.8 billion set in 2024. Industrial gas use, at 23.8 billion cubic feet a day, would tie a record that has stood since 1973.

Renewables are growing quickly as well. The EIA forecasts that renewables will rise from about 24% of generation in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 28% in 2027, and that solar alone will approach 10% in 2027. It expects 72 gigawatts of solar and 20 gigawatts of wind capacity to be added over 2026 and 2027. Coal's share is forecast to fall from 17% in 2025 to 15%, with 13 gigawatts of coal capacity scheduled to retire by the end of 2027. Nuclear is expected to hold at 18%.

The outlook also shows household bills still rising. The EIA forecasts the average residential electricity price at 18.2 cents per kWh in 2026, up from 17.2 cents in 2025, and 18.7 cents in 2027. Who pays for grid upgrades driven by data centres is now a live political question in Washington: on Tuesday the Senate voted to take up a permitting bill that would make data centres cover their grid costs.

The EIA's next Short-Term Energy Outlook is due on December 8.