Ives Says Anthropic's Likely Junk Rating Could Pull IPO Valuation Below $1.5 Trillion

The rating question comes from a Financial Times report last week. According to the FT, Blackstone told investors that Anthropic was likely to receive a rating in the double-B range after its listing. That level is below investment grade, often called junk. Reports say Blackstone had earlier guided that the Claude developer would reach investment grade by the end of 2026. Ives called the change "a bit of a gut punch." Moody's, S&P and Fitch have not published ratings on the company.

The Scale of Commitments

The rating matters because of how much Anthropic has promised to spend. Its amended IPO filing, released on Monday, disclosed $895.4 billion in commitments, mostly for computing capacity and data centres, Stocktwits reported. About $447.5 billion of that is due before the end of 2030. Asked whether a junk rating would make those obligations harder to fund, Ives answered "tougher." A rating below investment grade usually raises borrowing costs and reduces demand from bond funds that are restricted from holding lower-rated debt.

The rating also has a contractual effect. Tech Times reported that Anthropic's filing ties the release of collateral on a credit facility to winning investment-grade ratings from at least two of the three major agencies.

Anthropic's target valuation has reportedly fallen from about $2 trillion to between $1.5 trillion and $1.6 trillion. The Information reported that the listing is expected later this month at a valuation of around $1.5 trillion. Ives said the figure could drop below that range.

A Shorter Leash for AI Spending

Ives said investors are less willing to accept heavy AI spending without evidence of revenue. In his estimate, companies that once had 12 to 18 months to show returns may now have six to nine. He said the uncertainty around Anthropic was weighing on technology stocks more broadly because of its ties to Nvidia, Microsoft and Amazon. He added that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index could fall "another 10 to 12%."

He named Oracle as a "poster child" for the risks of borrowing to fund AI. Oracle shares were down about 1.5% in pre-market trading, Stocktwits reported, a day after the company announced a $20 billion fundraising. Ives said Microsoft and Alphabet were better placed to fund their AI infrastructure.

Investors are already watching how much debt the AI build-out is taking on. Several of the largest technology companies have tapped bond and equity markets in recent days, and the Anthropic listing is shaping up as a test of how much risk public investors will accept from a frontier AI lab. For Gulf sovereign funds and other institutions considering allocations, the credit rating will help set the cost of the debt behind those compute commitments.