UAE Opens 2026 IMF Article IV Talks as Growth Is Forecast to Slow to 1.6% This Year

Central Bank of the UAE Governor Khaled Mohamed Balama, who is also the country's governor at the IMF, opened the talks at the central bank's Abu Dhabi headquarters with the mission chief, Saeed Bakhache, and his team. The programme includes meetings with the central bank, the Ministry of Finance, other federal and local government bodies and the private sector.

According to the report, the consultations come as the UAE economy is expected to grow 1.6 per cent in 2026 and then rebound to about 10 per cent in 2027. That rebound is expected to come from expanding non-oil activity, continued infrastructure investment and higher oil production capacity. The report did not say who made the forecasts. UAE banking assets now exceed Dh5.7 trillion.

The low 2026 figure compares with the much faster rates the UAE recorded before this year, and it follows months of regional conflict that disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and air travel across the Gulf.

What The Talks Cover

The central bank sessions focus on growth prospects, inflation, bank resilience, financial infrastructure and fintech innovation. They also cover supervision, risk management and anti-money-laundering and counter-terrorist-financing standards. Balama said the talks reflect the UAE's commitment to transparency and financial stability, and pointed to what he described as the economy's structural resilience, supported by its logistics and financial infrastructure.

Separately, the Ministry of Finance met the mission in Abu Dhabi. The meeting was chaired by Under-Secretary Younis Haji Al Khoori with Ali Abdulla Sharafi, assistant under-secretary for international financial relations. The two sides reviewed fiscal results for 2025 and progress in 2026, including corporate tax implementation and receipts. They also discussed the medium-term fiscal framework, fiscal risk management, public debt and the local capital market, the maturity profile of government debt, and a debt issuance plan that runs to 2032.

Why It Matters

Article IV reviews are the IMF's regular health check of member economies. The mission's final statement and staff report are closely read by ratings agencies, bond investors and foreign businesses as an independent assessment of policy. This year's review will be watched for the Fund's view on how the UAE absorbed the effects of the regional war, the strength of its banks, and how far corporate tax is diversifying government revenue away from oil.

After its visit, the mission will prepare a report assessing the UAE economy's performance and outlook, its main opportunities and risks, and its recommendations, Al Bayan said. The debt issuance plan running to 2032 is also relevant for investors in the federal government's growing local-currency bond programme. The talks come a day after Fitch affirmed Abu Dhabi's AA rating with a stable outlook, citing oil revenue that held up through the war.