S&P Says Cash and Sales Backlogs Shield Dubai's Big Developers Ahead of a 2027 Correction

In its Dubai residential real estate outlook for 2027, a copy of which was obtained by the Dubai newspaper Al Bayan, the agency assessed Emaar Properties, Damac Properties, BNC Investments, which is linked to Sobha Group, and Omniyat Holdings. Together the four held about $24.6 billion in cash, liquid investments and escrow balances at the end of June 2026: $20.2 billion in project escrow accounts and $4.4 billion in cash and liquid investments available to the companies.

The report matters because it pairs a forecast of falling prices with a view that the sector's biggest names are not under immediate credit pressure. S&P said its ratings already include headroom for some deterioration in financial metrics during a downturn without automatically triggering pressure on creditworthiness.

The Supply Wave

S&P expects Dubai's residential stock to rise by 20 per cent over 2027 and 2028 as a large volume of new units, mostly apartments, is completed. Citing data and forecasts from JLL, the report said the emirate's housing stock is on track to grow by about 65 per cent between 2019 and 2028. Under its base case, that new supply, combined with continued regional disruption, is likely to lead to lower transaction volumes and prices in 2027.

Developers have benefited from strong demand since 2021, which let them build large backlogs of sold but unrecognised revenue. That gives them visibility over several years of earnings even though off-plan sales slowed during 2026, the agency said.

How the Four Compare

Emaar had the largest balances, at about $14 billion, of which $12 billion was in escrow and $2 billion in cash and liquid investments. Damac followed with $7.6 billion, split between $6.2 billion in escrow and $1.4 billion in cash. BNC Investments held $1.6 billion, including $1.2 billion in escrow and $400 million in cash, while Omniyat held $1.4 billion, with $800 million in escrow and $600 million in cash.

S&P rated Emaar's liquidity as exceptional, Damac's as strong and the other two as adequate.

Measured against the annual pace of revenue recorded in the first half of 2026, the contracted backlogs cover several years of income. Omniyat's covers about six years, Emaar's about 3.8 years, Damac's 3.2 years and BNC's about 2.2 years. That revenue will be recognised as projects progress and units are handed over, which helps the companies plan cash flow and capital spending.

The agency kept Emaar at BBB+ with a stable outlook and Damac at BB+ with a stable outlook. BNC Investments is rated BB with a negative outlook and Omniyat BB- with a negative outlook.

S&P said strong cash generation leaves the developers able to keep reinvesting and paying dividends, and that it expects them to adjust dividends and capital spending to their performance and surplus liquidity. The two companies on negative outlooks, BNC and Omniyat, are the ones with the thinnest liquidity assessments, and how they manage that spending through a 2027 slowdown is the point S&P's ratings now turn on.