Goldman Models Anthropic Revenue at $685 Billion by 2030 as IPO Nears

The forecast arrives as Anthropic asks investors to support one of the largest stock offerings ever. Bloomberg calculates that the company is targeting a fully diluted value of about $1.4 trillion. It aims to raise $90.4 billion, including a $26 billion private placement, with pricing set for Wednesday, November 18, and trading due to start the next day. A valuation that size needs revenue growth far beyond anything a software company has achieved, and Goldman's model is one of the first detailed outside attempts to put numbers on that path.

In the model, $586 billion of 2030 revenue would come from enterprise customers and roughly $100 billion from other sales. That split reflects how much of Anthropic's business already comes from companies paying for Claude through its API and coding tools, rather than from consumer subscriptions.

The model also shows a steep cost curve. According to the Bloomberg report, Goldman expects Anthropic's spending on computing infrastructure to rise more than tenfold by the end of the decade, to nearly $400 billion, and does not expect the company to generate positive free cash flow on an annual basis until 2030. Semafor, which also reported the Goldman projection, put Anthropic's planned spending on its AI build-out at about $900 billion and said the revenue figure would place the company among the largest in the world.

Goldman has not published the numbers. Goldman Sachs and Anthropic declined to comment, Bloomberg said. It added that the Financial Times had reported some of the figures earlier.

The IPO has moved quickly over the past day. On Tuesday Anthropic's banks held investor meetings, and an amended filing showed each of the company's seven co-founders planning to sell about $250 million of stock. The filing also showed the founders keeping a majority of the votes through supervoting shares. Earlier filings set out tens of billions of dollars in multi-year commitments to cloud providers including Microsoft and Google, which helps explain the compute bill in Goldman's model.

Semafor also pointed to a political side of the listing. It argued that a company of this scale would make chief executive Dario Amodei one of the world's most influential executives. It said the listing would also strengthen institutions that share his views on effective altruism and existential risk from AI. The Trump administration has condemned effective altruism, and Meta's Mark Zuckerberg and Nvidia's Jensen Huang have criticised Amodei as a "doomer", Semafor noted.

Investors will set their own price for those projections when the order book closes. The offering is scheduled to price on November 18, with the first day of trading on November 19.